Are We Heading For A Recession?

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Happy Friday Cousins!

What a crazy summer it has been so far - elections heating up, recession fears, institutions buying, the list goes on and on.

Let’s not waste any more time and dive right into today’s letter because we got a lot to - also cheers to the weekend cousins we made it 🥂

GM legends.

A lot has changed since we put out our last newsletter - but thankfully we are back on schedule and getting these articles out consistently. The most major change? The anticipation of a recession. Now in my opinion the whole reason recessions are so devastating to the majority of people is more than likely you don’t and won’t see them coming - they’re extremely hard to time. In the 2008 financial crisis, there were only a handful of people who were able to anticipate it, so few that they made a movie about them (called The Big Short, an incredible movie adn well worth the watch). I think a lot of people have been anticipating a recession for quite some time and while I don’t necessarily disagree that one is coming, I just don’t think it’s coming as soon as a lot of people are predicting. Even one of the the protagonists in The Big Short, Dr. Michael Burry, started shorting the market wayyyy too early (he was still right in the end).

Why do I feel this way? There seems to be simply too many people who would be prepared and too much speculation around it. I believe we’re more likely to see a proper recession take place next year or even 2026, when people think we’re in the full clear from one and have their guards down, this will likely hurt a lot of people and cause devastation that a recession usually causes.

📍 What does this mean for crypto?

I still believe the second half of this year is going to be incredibly bullish for BTC and crypto as a whole, anything that occurs short term is just noise, and if fortunate enough to get those cascading dips, they’re great buys in my humble opinion.

I think the market is maturing, realizing that most of our beloved altcoins are really just meme coins with a mask, and that is why for now I would stick to loading up on the select few large caps that have already cooked and showed strength.

We’re currently experiencing the market at its worst, with very little to no volatility (unless caused by mainstream news), chop, and almost now inflow of new capital meaning we’re still just in a PVP market with money rotating from one coin to the next, seeing very few projects pump and actually maintain their pumps. These are not the conditions you want to be trading in. These are the conditions where you set bids nice and low to catch any short-term nukes and simply enjoy summer and touch grass for the rest of it. There will come a time when we resume easy mode and everything turbo sends. Until then you want to maintain your capital to the best of your ability and not get caught with your d*ck in your hand when it comes time to repeatedly smash that green button. We are witnessing time-based capitulation, do not let it get the best of you.

Presented by the Crypto Scroll Newsletter

• Binance re-enters Indian market after 7-month ban (CT)

• MetaMask and Mastercard team to launch crypto-to-fiat debit card (P)

• Transaction data shows the U.S. government moved $600M of seized Silk Road bitcoin to Coinbase Prime (BN)

• SEC approves leveraged long ETF for MicroStrategy (CT)

• Senate proposes for crypto tax exemption for transactions under $200 (CT)

• Rumors swirl that Blackrock may develop an Ethereum L2 solution (WG)

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Speaking of recessions, this is an excellent time to go over some recent economic data for those who aren’t aware.

Although the numbers aren't worth writing home about, inflation has cooled down in America. CPI data in July shows its lowest growth since March 2021 and numbers cooled to 2.9% in July - potentially giving the fed the green light to cut rates in September.

Consumer spending still shows no sign of stopping. In July retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, much better than the 0.3% estimate.

Both of these data points aren’t typical of an immediate recession. Although anything can happen, it still seem like we are in the clear (at least for now).

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Written by: Cousin Crypto, Gannon

Disclaimer: Heinous Pumps Newsletter does NOT provide financial advice. All content is for informational purposes only. Heinous Pumps is not a registered investment, legal, or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. Trading any crypto-related asset is extremely risky and could result in significant capital losses. Heinous Pumps is a satire-based newsletter and should not be taken seriously.